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Prediction for CME (2024-12-23T11:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-12-23T11:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/35881/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the south in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 imagery and is not observed in STEREO A COR2 due to limited imagery from an ongoing campaign. There is an overlapping CME which appears directed towards the southwest starting around 2024-12-23T11:48Z which may be associated with far-sided activity and is separate from this event. The source is likely associated with the M8.9 flare and subsequent eruption from Active Region 13932 (S18E30) starting around 2024-12-23T11:10Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 imagery. Ejected material is observed best in GOES SUVI 304 imagery which appears to deflect south of the eruption site. Additionally, dimming is observed south/southwest of the eruption site, centered near S35E20 in GOES SUVI 195 imagery around 2024-12-23T11:15Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-12-25T19:16Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/35883/1
Model Inputs:
2024-12-23T11:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-2.0, Lat.=-48.0, Speed=823.0, HalfAngle=45.0, Time21.5=2024-12-23T15:39Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-12-25T19:16Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =22.5 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.2
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-26T13:19Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-25T04:35Z
Lucy with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-25T22:10Z
Mars with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-27T16:09Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-26T00:38Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-12-25T22:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20241223_153900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 49.93 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2024-12-23T17:20Z

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